November 5, 2025
One and a half degrees above average: that was the average temperature in the Brazilian Amazon in 2024—a milestone that ideally should not have been reached, according to the Paris Agreement. It was not an isolated case; in other parts of our country, this mark was also surpassed last year. This was notably seen in the Pantanal, where the temperature surged 1.8°C beyond the historical average. These are some of the unprecedented data points being launched by MapBiomas on November 5, on the eve of COP30, through its new platform: MapBiomas Atmosfera (Mapbiomas Atmosphere). Using satellite imagery and data modeling, the platform provides climate data on temperature and precipitation variations between 1985 and 2024, as well as data on atmospheric pollutants between 2003 and 2024, covering the entire Brazilian territory.
"MapBiomas Atmosfera is a new tool that assists Brazil in implementing public policies based on experimental evidence and shows which regions would be most impacted by climate change and land-use change. It is an important new tool to aid in the preservation of our ecosystems," highlights Paulo Artaxo, a professor at USP and member of the MapBiomas Atmosfera initiative.
MapBiomas is also launching a publication this week to support negotiators, journalists, researchers, and other stakeholders participating in the Belém Climate Conference. It features a guide containing a compilation of the most recent land cover and land use data in Brazil, organized into thematic sections that demonstrate how this information can guide climate mitigation and adaptation actions in different contexts.
"Science is the foundation upon which countries decided to establish joint global action to face the great environmental challenges of this century. In these last three decades of negotiation, it wasn't just the climate that changed: land cover and use in Brazil and the world have also changed. And this has a direct impact on the climate," explains Julia Shimbo, scientific coordinator of MapBiomas.
"The Amazon has lost 52 million hectares, or -13%, of its native vegetation area since 1985. During the same period, the biome saw an average temperature increase of 1.2°C. The most recent studies indicate that forest loss modifies heat and water vapor exchanges with the atmosphere, resulting in higher temperatures," adds Tasso Azevedo, general coordinator of MapBiomas. Recently, using this database, a study published in Nature Geoscience showed that deforestation causes 74% of rainfall reduction and 16% of temperature increase in the Amazon during droughts.
In the four decades between 1985 and 2024, the temperature across Brazil has increased at an average rate of 0.29°Coper decade, according to MapBiomas Atmosfera. Some biomes, however, are warming faster. This is the case for the Pantanal (+0.47°C / decade) and the Cerrado (+0.31°C / decade)—both located in the most continental part of the country. The Amazon, as a whole, stayed at the average (+0.29°C / decade), while coastal biomes showed a slower warming pace: Caatinga (+0.25°C / decade), Atlantic Forest (+0.21°C / decade), and Pampa (+0.14°C / decade).
"The last three IPCC reports already pointed to these warming and precipitation alteration trends that we are observing on the MapBiomas Atmosfera platform," says Paulo Artaxo. "These temperature increases have significant impacts on all Brazilian biomes. The reduction in precipitation also has major effects, especially in the Amazon and the Pantanal," he adds.
For a decade, since 2014, the temperature in Brazil has remained above the average of the analyzed period (1985-2024). The highest anomaly value was observed in 2024, when the temperature was 1.2 oC above the average of the last 40 years. Since 2019, above-average temperatures have been recorded in almost all biomes. In the Caatinga, Cerrado, and Pampa biomes, temperature anomalies have remained up to 1 oC above average. Meanwhile, the Pantanal biome recorded a record anomaly in 2024, with temperatures 1.8 oC above average. This biome is fed by rains in the Upper Paraguay Basin which, in 2024, recorded precipitation 314 mm below average, with 205 days without rain. 2024 was especially hot across Brazil, with temperatures ranging from 0.3°C to 2.0oC above the historical average in all states.
MapBiomas Atmosfera also shows that air temperature is increasing throughout Brazil, but with variations from state to state. In more continental states such as Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Piauí, the temperature is rising faster, with rates between 0.34oC e 0,40oC and 0.40°C per decade. In contrast, states along the Brazilian coast tend to show lower rates of temperature increase, such as Rio Grande do Norte, Alagoas, and Paraíba (0.10oC to 0.12oC/decade). In the São Paulo metropolitan area, the air temperature is increasing at a rate of 0.19oC per decade.
The new platform also includes data on air pollution between 2003 and 2024, estimated from global atmospheric models. They show that the cleanest air in Brazil is found in northeastern coastal states like Bahia, Sergipe, and Pernambuco, where the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was lower than 7 µg/m3 in 2024. PM2.5 consists of small particles suspended in the air and is one of the main atmospheric pollutants, present in smoke emitted by the burning of fossil fuels and biomass. "Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is composed of microscopic particles in the air that represent one of the most harmful forms of air pollution and pose risks to public health," explains Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado, visiting professor at University of São Paulo (USP) and member of the MapBiomas Atmosfera team. In Rondônia and Mato Grosso, the states with the highest concentrations of fine particulate matter in Brazil in 2024, the annual average PM2.5 was estimated at 42 µg/m³ and 30 µg/m3, respectively.
"In general, air pollution in the North region was more intense than in heavily urbanized areas of the Southeast in 2024. Low air quality in Amazonian states is directly related to smoke from forest fires, which occur mainly during the biome's dry season between July and September, when rainfall drops from approximately 250 mm/month to 100 mm/month," clarifies Luciana Rizzo, professor at USP and member of the MapBiomas Atmosfera initiative.
The drier climate favors the occurrence of fire. In 2024, it rained 448 mm (-20%) below the biome's average, while the temperature was 1.5oC above average. In some parts of the Amazon, the precipitation anomaly reached -1000 mm/year. The decrease in rainfall contributed to the increase in burned areas, which reached 15.6 million hectares in the biome in 2024. The smoke from the fires contains PM2.5, whose concentration reached an annual average of 24.8 µg/m3 in 2024.
At the peak of the fire season in September, the burned area in the Amazon reaches an average of two million hectares. The average concentration of PM2.5 can reach 43 µg/m3 at this time of year. Conversely, during the rainy season, PM2.5 concentrations stay below 15 µg/m3 in the Amazon.
"These numbers are valuable for understanding and managing air quality, although they cannot be taken as absolute. They indicate the presence of pollution plumes, critical areas and periods, and the temporal behavior of pollutant concentration and dispersion, which can help identify pollution problems and design solutions," says David Tsai, project manager at IEMA responsible for the Air Quality Platform. "However, it is important to remember that currently, satellite data and modeling do not have the necessary accuracy to assess compliance with air quality standards," he emphasizes.
In 2024, states in the North region recorded precipitation deficits, most notably Rondônia, where it rained 648 mm (36% below the historical average). The states with the lowest number of rainy days were Sergipe, Pernambuco, and Alagoas, ranging between 266 and 272 days without rain. While it rained less in the north of the country in 2024, states in the South region recorded above-average rainfall, especially Rio Grande do Sul, which saw 328 mm (19% above the historical average). In May 2024, it rained more than double what was expected for Rio Grande do Sul: 370 mm, 150% above the historical average. The state's mountain region (serra) recorded rainfall volumes up to 500 mm above average in May 2024.
"This pattern of drought in most of Brazil and heavy rain in the South is typically observed in years of the El Niño meteorological phenomenon, a result of the anomalous warming of Pacific Ocean waters," explains Luiz Machado.
While air temperature has systematically increased across the country, annual precipitation shows a more complex behavior, alternating between dry and rainy periods over the last 40 years. In 2009, it rained 252 mm (+14%) above average in the country. Conversely, 2023 was the driest year, with rainfall 308 mm (-18%) below average, recording a volume of 1,446 mm.
The Matopiba region, the agricultural frontier of the Cerrado, lost 27% of its natural areas between 1985 and 2024, mostly (99%) to farming and ranching. In Matopiba, the temperature has been increasing at a rate of 0.32oC per decade. Precipitation shows an alternation between dry and rainy periods, with the number of days without rain varying from 145 to 210 days per year.
In the case of the Caatinga, the hottest and driest year was 2023, with a temperature 0.8 oC above the historical average and average precipitation of 547 mm/year (27% below average). The spatial distribution of rain in the biome is uneven, and in its interior, regions with precipitation below 300 mm were observed in 2023.
In addition to the information mentioned, MapBiomas Atmosfera also brings together data on the number of days without rain and soil water availability—indicators for analyzing water stress in Brazil. The system also presents information on persistent rain days, which helps identify regions with excess precipitation and monitor areas vulnerable to flooding. For example, 2024 data shows an anomaly of persistent rain days in Rio Grande do Sul, especially between April and June.