A study on soil carbon dynamics shows that, by 2030, 29 million hectares would be needed for meat production, down from the current 50 million hectares; the research used data from MapBiomas

July 23, 2025

By 2030, cattle ranching in the Cerrado biome may require only 58% of the area currently used to meet the estimated meat demand for that year, provided that land is managed appropriately, according to the study “Pathways to Sustainable Landscapes: Carbon Dynamics in Land-Use and Management Transitions in the Brazilian Cerrado.”

The study, conducted by the Image Processing and Geoprocessing Laboratory (Lapig) at the Federal University of Goiás (UFG) and The Nature Conservancy (TNC Brazil), with support from the Federal University of Sergipe (UFS), was released in June, at the 26th International Environmental Film and Video Festival (FICA) in the city of Goiás (GO

The study aimed to understand soil carbon dynamics and explore the potential of using degraded pastures to facilitate future beef and soybean production, as well as to identify areas suitable for ecological restoration within the biome. The researchers also analyzed how this future production will impact carbon stocks in the region.

To conduct the analysis, the study used the Century ecosystem model to estimate current carbon stocks in biomass and soil for 2030 and 2050 in areas of pasture and native vegetation, based on their spatial distribution and quality.

Maria Hunter, coordinator of the Lapig Carbon Group and one of the study’s authors, explains that data from MapBiomas Collection 7.1 related to areas of native vegetation and pastures were used. The platform was also important for understanding when a given area ceased to have native vegetation and what happened to it—for example, if it became pasture and then a soybean-growing area. The study also took into account information on pasture vigor.

Consequently, it was found that, by maintaining high-quality pastures and improving low- and medium-quality pastures through proper management, the portion of the Brazilian cattle herd allocated to the Cerrado by 2030 (estimated at 61 million head) will require 29 million hectares of the area currently estimated to be pasture, which totals 50 million hectares (including low-, medium-, and high-vigor pastures).

“By simply improving the pastures, it would be necessary to use just over half—58%—of the current pasture area,” Hunter notes.

Another 3 million hectares could be allocated to soybean production to meet the estimated demand for the grain in 2030. This would leave about 18 million hectares “free” for other uses and purposes. “There are many possibilities, whether for agriculture and livestock, renewable energy production, or vegetation restoration,” comments Hunter.

With regard to carbon stocks, the study projected two scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050. In the first, 18 million hectares are allocated to natural regeneration, which would result in an additional 0.23 gigatons of carbon (Gt C) after five years (in 2030) and an additional 0.48 Gt C after 25 years (in 2050).

In the second scenario, 8.9 million hectares are allocated to regeneration, and the remainder remains as unimproved pastureland. In this case, the impact on carbon stocks is smaller: after five years, it accumulates an additional 0.15 Gt C, and shows an increase of 0.30 Gt C by 2050.

“The increase in carbon stock in both scenarios contributes to addressing climate change in two ways. First, the carbon that accumulates in vegetation is (in part) being removed from the atmosphere. Additionally, the regeneration of native vegetation can have an effect on the local climate, with increased water cycling,” Hunter explains.

Check out the study here.

Carbon in areas susceptible to deforestation

The researchers also combined data from IBGE and MapBiomas to estimate savanna coverage within the biome and calculate carbon stock estimates. The data were cross-referenced with records of Permanent Preservation Areas (APPs) and Legal Reserves (RLs) listed in the Rural Environmental Registry System (Sicar), as well as protected areas and Indigenous Lands. As a result, it was found that 49% of savanna areas, which harbor 47% of the biome’s carbon, are located in regions vulnerable to deforestation.

“We have a lot of pastureland that could be put to better use economically and for producers, as well as for the environment. It doesn’t have to be one against the other. That really is a key point,” she concludes.